NFL Pointspread Conversion Table
Have you ever wondered how often a -3 point favorite wins a football game straight up? Smart bettors do, as this information is critical in determining value in the lines.
The pointspread was created over 60 years ago as an alternative to betting sports on the moneyline and has become the standard bet in North America for betting on football and basketball, so not a lot of casual bettors even give it a second thought. But for those of us who are more than casual bettors, this crucial information can be the difference between a winning and a losing season.
We've gone over 50,000 games spanning generations to bring the actual STRAIGHT UP WIN PERCENTAGE of NFL teams against the spread. (NOTE: For purposes of this study CLOSING POINTSPREADS were used)
NFL Football Pointspread to Win % Conversion Table
| Pointspread | Favorite Win% | Underdog Win% |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.40% | 48.60% |
| 1.5 | 52.60% | 47.40% |
| 2 | 53.60% | 46.40% |
| 2.5 | 54.60% | 45.40% |
| 3 | 59.50% | 40.50% |
| 3.5 | 64.40% | 35.60% |
| 4 | 65.90% | 34.10% |
| 4.5 | 67.40% | 32.60% |
| 5 | 68.20% | 31.80% |
| 5.5 | 69.10% | 31.00% |
| 6 | 70.80% | 29.30% |
| 6.5 | 72.50% | 27.60% |
| 7 | 75.30% | 24.70% |
| 7.5 | 78.20% | 21.80% |
| 8 | 79.20% | 20.80% |
| 8.5 | 80.30% | 19.70% |
| 9 | 80.80% | 19.20% |
| 9.5 | 81.20% | 18.80% |
| 10 | 83.70% | 16.30% |
| 10.5 | 86.10% | 13.90% |
| 11 | 87.20% | 12.80% |
| 11.5 | 88.30% | 11.70% |
| 12 | 88.60% | 11.50% |
| 12.5 | 88.80% | 11.20% |
| 13 | 89.40% | 10.60% |
| 13.5 | 90.10% | 9.90% |
| 14 | 92.50% | 7.50% |
| 14.5 | 95.00% | 5.00% |
| 15 | 95.70% | 4.30% |
| 15.5 | 96.40% | 3.60% |
| 16 | 98.20% | 1.80% |
| 16.5 | 99.90% | 0.10% |
| 17 + | 100.0% | 0.0% |
