Noche UFC returns Saturday, September 12, from Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona, with a six-fight main card headlined by Jean Silva against late replacement Jose Miguel Delgado.
The card has undergone some major changes during fight week. Silva was originally scheduled to face Yair Rodriguez, but Rodriguez withdrew with an injury and Delgado stepped in on short notice. All 26 fighters made weight Friday, so the main card is officially set.
The current main-card betting market makes Silva, Fiorot, Cortes-Acosta and Martinez the notable favorites, while Moreno-Morales is much closer to a pick'em fight.
Odds can vary from sportsbook to sportsbook and may move substantially before fight time. The lines below should therefore be treated as approximate current market prices rather than guaranteed numbers.
Jean Silva vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Featherweight Main Event
Current approximate odds:
Jean Silva: -425 to -500
Jose Miguel Delgado: +300 to +325
Prediction: Jean Silva
Method of victory: Silva by KO/TKO
Jean Silva gets a completely different opponent than the one he prepared for, but the change arguably makes his path to victory clearer.
Silva enters as the No. 6-ranked featherweight in the MMA Fighting rankings and has won six of his seven UFC appearances. Delgado is 4-1 in the UFC but is stepping into the biggest opportunity of his career on short notice.
Silva's biggest advantage is his explosiveness. He is an aggressive striker who can turn a relatively even exchange into a finishing sequence very quickly. His power and willingness to attack make him one of the more dangerous fighters in the division when he can dictate the pace.
Delgado deserves respect. He is not simply being handed a UFC main event. His UFC record shows that he belongs at this level, and fighting in front of a home-state crowd gives him an additional incentive. But the short-notice nature of the opportunity is a major concern.
Delgado has had less time to prepare specifically for Silva's style, and that matters against a fighter who is dangerous in virtually every extended striking exchange.
Silva also has the greater experience in high-level UFC competition.
The biggest danger for Silva is looking past Delgado. This was supposed to be a completely different matchup, and Delgado has nothing to lose.
Betting pick: Jean Silva moneyline
Better-value option: Silva by KO/TKO if the price remains reasonable
Upset possibility: Delgado is dangerous enough that +300 or better is attractive strictly as a speculative underdog ticket, but Silva is the much stronger straight pick.
Best bet: Jean Silva to win
Projected result: Jean Silva by second-round TKO
Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales
Flyweight Co-Main Event
Current approximate odds:
Joseph Morales: -125 to -140
Brandon Moreno: +100 to +105
Prediction: Joseph Morales
Method of victory: Morales by decision
This is one of the most interesting betting fights on the card because the name recognition is heavily tilted toward Moreno while the current betting market is giving Morales the edge.
Moreno is a former UFC flyweight champion and one of the most accomplished fighters in the division's recent history. However, he enters Noche UFC trying to snap a two-fight losing streak. Moreno has acknowledged that he has struggled mentally and technically during this recent stretch and has made changes to his training team, including working with John Wood at Syndicate MMA.
Morales is coming into this fight at a very different point in his career.
The Ultimate Fighter 33 winner has momentum and confidence, and recent performances have suggested a fighter who is comfortable applying pressure and maintaining a high pace. Current analysis also points toward Morales using body attacks, leg kicks and pressure to make Moreno work continuously.
Moreno's jab and grappling remain major weapons. If he can establish the jab early, force Morales backward and mix in takedowns, he has enough experience to completely change the fight.
The problem is that Moreno has recently struggled to consistently impose his technical game.
Morales is younger, fresher and appears to be entering the matchup with greater momentum.
This is not a fight where I would recommend laying a large price on either side.
Betting pick: Joseph Morales moneyline
Value play: Morales by decision
Prop consideration: Fight to go the distance
Best bet: Morales moneyline at -125 or better
Projected result: Joseph Morales by decision
Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki
Featherweight
Current approximate odds:
Tommy McMillen: -160 to -200
Marwan Rahiki: +130 to +150
Prediction: Tommy McMillen
Method of victory: McMillen by decision
This is one of the more intriguing fights on the card for bettors because Rahiki is a legitimate live underdog.
McMillen is currently favored, but the price is not so large that Rahiki can simply be ignored. Current betting coverage has identified Rahiki as one of the more interesting underdog opportunities on the main card.
McMillen's biggest advantage is consistency. He should have opportunities to control the range, dictate where exchanges take place and score consistently over three rounds.
Rahiki is dangerous because he can make the fight uncomfortable. If he can prevent McMillen from settling into a rhythm and force extended exchanges, the underdog becomes much more interesting.
The biggest question is whether Rahiki can maintain his effectiveness once McMillen starts making adjustments.
For a straight pick, McMillen is the safer side.
For bettors looking for value, however, Rahiki is one of the underdogs worth investigating.
Betting pick: Tommy McMillen moneyline
Value alternative: Marwan Rahiki +130 or better
Method prop: McMillen by decision
Best bet: McMillen moneyline if available around -160
Projected result: Tommy McMillen by decision
Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso
Women's Flyweight
Current approximate odds:
Manon Fiorot: approximately -225 to -300
Alexa Grasso: approximately +185 to +190
Prediction: Manon Fiorot
Method of victory: Fiorot by decision
This could be the most technically interesting fight on the main card.
Fiorot is the longer, faster and more athletic fighter, and her ability to control distance is the key to this matchup.
Grasso is an excellent boxer with strong defensive instincts and a dangerous submission game. She also has the experience of fighting at the highest level of the division.
But stylistically, Fiorot presents a difficult problem.
Fiorot can fight from the outside with kicks and straight punches, forcing Grasso to continually close distance before she can get her boxing combinations going. That makes this a potentially frustrating matchup for Grasso.
Recent analysis has similarly pointed toward Fiorot's speed, range and long-distance striking as the decisive advantages.
Grasso's path to victory is to make this an inside fight.
If she can pressure Fiorot toward the fence, land combinations and force Fiorot to fight at close range, the former champion becomes much more dangerous.
But if Fiorot maintains the center of the cage and refuses to stand directly in front of Grasso, she should be able to bank rounds.
This looks more like a decision fight than a finishing opportunity.
Betting pick: Manon Fiorot moneyline
Best method bet: Fiorot by decision
Alternative: Fight to go the distance
Best bet: Fiorot moneyline up to approximately -250
Projected result: Manon Fiorot by unanimous decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes
Heavyweight
Current approximate odds:
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: approximately -225 to -230
Curtis Blaydes: approximately +150
Prediction: Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Method of victory: Cortes-Acosta by decision
This is the fight where heavyweight volatility has to be taken seriously.
At heavyweight, one clean punch can destroy an otherwise perfect prediction. That makes a moneyline favorite around -225 considerably less comfortable than the same price in a lower weight class.
Cortes-Acosta nevertheless has the stylistic edge.
He has developed into a strong, active boxer who can maintain a useful pace for a heavyweight. His jab should be particularly important because it allows him to score without constantly standing in the pocket.
Blaydes' traditional route to victory has been his wrestling.
At his best, Blaydes can overwhelm opponents with takedowns and top control. But his recent wrestling effectiveness has not consistently looked like the version that once established him as one of the division's most dangerous contenders. Current analysis also points to his age, accumulated damage and knee issues as concerns.
Cortes-Acosta should be able to keep this fight standing for long stretches.
If Blaydes cannot consistently get the takedown, Cortes-Acosta's volume and boxing should allow him to win rounds.
The concern for bettors is the knockout potential on both sides. Heavyweight fights can change instantly.
Betting pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta moneyline
Better method option: Cortes-Acosta by decision
Underdog consideration: Curtis Blaydes is worth a small speculative knockout ticket because of the inherent volatility of heavyweight MMA.
Best bet: Cortes-Acosta moneyline
Projected result: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision
David Martinez vs. Dan Ige
Bantamweight
Current approximate odds:
David Martinez: approximately -500
Dan Ige: approximately +290 to +300
Prediction: David Martinez
Method of victory: Martinez by decision
Martinez is one of the biggest favorites on the main card, and there is a reason the market has moved so strongly in his direction.
The matchup is essentially youth and momentum versus veteran experience.
Ige has been around the UFC level for years and has faced elite competition. That experience cannot be discounted.
However, Martinez is the fighter I expect to control the pace.
The younger fighter should have the speed advantage, and his ability to create exchanges on his terms makes him difficult for a veteran such as Ige to consistently outpoint.
The biggest question is whether Martinez can avoid becoming too aggressive.
Ige has enough experience and toughness to punish mistakes, particularly if Martinez gives him extended opportunities in the pocket.
But over three rounds, Martinez should have more ways to win.
A -500 moneyline is too expensive for me as a standalone bet. Instead, Martinez becomes more attractive as a parlay piece or through a method-of-victory market if a reasonable price is available.
Betting pick: David Martinez
Best use: Parlay piece
Value alternative: Martinez by decision
Best bet: Martinez moneyline only as part of a carefully constructed parlay
Projected result: David Martinez by unanimous decision
Noche UFC Best Bets
After breaking down the six main-card fights, these are the positions I like most.
Best Straight Bet:
Jean Silva to defeat Jose Miguel Delgado
Silva has the experience, power and technical advantage, while Delgado is stepping into the biggest fight of his career on short notice. Silva's current market price is expensive, but he is the most logical favorite on the card.
Best Value Favorite:
Manon Fiorot
Fiorot's combination of speed, range and technical striking should allow her to control the majority of the fight against Grasso.
Best Underdog:
Marwan Rahiki
Rahiki is not a pick I would make ahead of McMillen on the moneyline, but the +130 to +150 range makes him one of the more interesting underdogs on the card.
Best Method-of-Victory Bet:
Jean Silva by KO/TKO
Silva has the kind of offensive style that makes a finish much more realistic than simply laying a large moneyline price.
Best Decision Bet:
Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision
Cortes-Acosta should be able to use his jab and boxing to control the fight while avoiding the wrestling-heavy approach Blaydes needs to produce a decisive victory.
Best Fight to Go the Distance:
Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso
Both fighters have enough defensive ability and technical discipline to make a decision especially attractive.
Noche UFC Parlay
A conservative three-fight parlay would be:
Jean Silva moneyline
Manon Fiorot moneyline
David Martinez moneyline
This is not a recommendation to bet a large amount simply because all three are favorites. The combined price will be significantly shorter than any individual underdog opportunity, so bankroll management remains important.
For a more aggressive parlay:
Jean Silva by KO/TKO
Manon Fiorot by decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision
This carries considerably more risk but provides a much larger potential return.
Noche UFC Long-Shot Underdog Parlay
For bettors looking for a higher-risk ticket:
Marwan Rahiki moneyline
Brandon Moreno moneyline
Curtis Blaydes moneyline
This is strictly a value-oriented long shot.
Moreno has the championship experience to outperform his current price, Rahiki has been identified as a legitimate underdog possibility, and Blaydes remains dangerous enough at heavyweight that he cannot be completely dismissed.
Final Noche UFC Main Card Predictions
Jean Silva defeats Jose Miguel Delgado by TKO
Joseph Morales defeats Brandon Moreno by decision
Tommy McMillen defeats Marwan Rahiki by decision
Manon Fiorot defeats Alexa Grasso by decision
Waldo Cortes-Acosta defeats Curtis Blaydes by decision
David Martinez defeats Dan Ige by decision
Final Betting Card
Best Bet: Jean Silva
Best Value Favorite: Manon Fiorot
Best Underdog: Marwan Rahiki
Best Prop: Jean Silva by KO/TKO
Best Decision Prop: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by decision
Best Fight to Go the Distance: Fiorot vs. Grasso
Best Conservative Parlay: Silva + Fiorot + Martinez
Best Aggressive Parlay: Silva KO/TKO + Fiorot Decision + Cortes-Acosta Decision
As always with MMA betting, prices matter. A good fighter at a bad number can become a bad bet, while an underdog can be worth considering simply because the market has given him enough implied probability. Shop the available lines before placing a wager, and keep individual bets within a predetermined bankroll.