
UFC 316 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Picks
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O'Malley
Dvalishvili -300 - O'Malley +240
Dvalishvili by decision - His wrestling and relentless grappling will neutralize O'Malley's striking. Even O'Malley's refined striking plan probably won't be enough
Dvalishvili -300, plus under 4.5 rounds (cardio-heavy grappling slows finish pace).
Julianna Pena (c) vs. Kayla Harrison
Harrison -600 - Pena +425
Harrison by decision - Dominant judo and physicality give her clear advantage, though Pena's fight-pace might extend it
Harrison -600, and potentially Harrison by decision (prop) for better value.
Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Pyfer -400 - Gastelum +310
Pyfer by decision - His striking pressure outweighs Gastelum's chin and power. Consistency tilts this in his favor per experts
Pyfer -400.
Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista
Mix -170 - Bautista +140
Mix via submission - Submission prowess expected to shine on his UFC debut at this level
Mix by submission - Strong upside in prop market.
Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque
Holland -280 - Luque +230
Holland by decision - Reach and recent form edge out Luque, with cardio favoring Holland
Holland -280.
Merab Dvalishvili enters riding a 12-fight win streak with elite cardio and wrestling - believe another decision win is likely, O'Malley's only path is early striking success
Kayla Harrison, the Olympic gold medalist in judo, is heavily favored. Even Amanda Nunes picks her by decision, and MMA Mania highlights her takedown-edged dominance
Patchy Mix is widely regarded as the submission specialist to watch in this UFC debut - analysts point to high upside if he controls the grappling exchanges
Why Back These Picks?
Dvalishvili's wrestling matches up well vs. O'Malley's striking-focused game.
Harrison's judo and physicality at -600 give heavy reassurance in the moneyline and decision props.
Pyfer and Holland both have strong betting appeal given their statistics and matchup edges.
Mix's submission upside makes him a compelling underdog bet in combat sports.
Best Bet Summary
Top Moneyline Picks: Dvalishvili (-300), Harrison (-600), Pyfer (-400), Holland (-280)
Prop Value Plays:
Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds
Harrison via decision
Mix by submission
For More Winning Picks?
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Prelims & Undercard Odds
Flyweight: Joshua Van ?670 vs Bruno Silva +430
Prediction: Van wins; best bet: Van & over 2.5 rounds (-145)
Light Heavyweight: Azamat Murzakanov ?670 vs Brendson Ribeiro +430
Prop: under 1.5 rounds (?160)
Heavyweight: Sergey Spivak -138 vs Waldo Cortes?Acosta +108
Prop: under 2.5 rounds (-160)
Welterweight: Khaos Williams -200 vs Andreas Gustafsson +154
Bet of the Week: Williams (-190), per Drake Burden
Parlays & Prop Picks (Main Card + Undercard)
Best Parlays
Combo: Dvalishvili, Harrison, Williams for tight odds with high confidence
Top Props
Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds (+125)
Harrison via submission (+155) - strong judo/ground game favors this
Mix by submission (+230) - submission specialist in live debut
Murzakanov vs Ribeiro under 1.5 rounds (-160)
Spivak vs Cortes Acosta under 2.5 rounds (-160)
Best Bets Across the Card
Moneyline: Dvalishvili, Harrison, Pyfer, Mix, Holland
High-Value Props & Parlays:
Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds
Harrison via submission
Mix by submission
Murzakanov & Spivak unders
Khaos Williams moneyline
Parlay idea: Dvalishvili + Harrison + Williams = high-confidence multiplier.
Why These Picks?
Van, Murzakanov, Spivak: all stronger fighters heavily favored to finish early.
Dvalishvili & Mix: top grappling control; fights likely go decision or submission.
Harrison: judo + physicality = dominator; submission prop is realistic at +155.
Williams: form momentum picked up by betting experts
Tune in for even more value!
- prop breakdowns for unique bets
- live parlays just before and during the fights
- expert DFS insights like Ram Drift Burden's fantasy value charts
Find all the edge you need over at www.procappers.com - your source for pro-level betting strategy.
PARLAY BUILDER
Safe 3-Leg Parlay (Favs):
Dvalishvili ML
Harrison ML
Pyfer ML
Payout: Approx. +100 to +120
Value 4-Leg Prop Parlay:
Dvalishvili under 4.5
Harrison by sub
Mix by sub
Murzakanov under 1.5
Payout: Approx. +950 to +1100 depending on sportsbook
Live Bet Watch: If O'Malley survives Round 1, his odds will balloon up. Might hedge by betting live Round 2 start if you're backing Dvalishvili.
ProCappers Edge
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Professional picks from proven handicappers
Real-time betting consensus and line movement
Expert parlays, live betting angles, and props
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