UFC 316 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Picks

Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O'Malley

Dvalishvili -300 - O'Malley +240 

Dvalishvili by decision - His wrestling and relentless grappling will neutralize O'Malley's striking. Even O'Malley's refined striking plan probably won't be enough 

Dvalishvili -300, plus under 4.5 rounds (cardio-heavy grappling slows finish pace).

Julianna Pena (c) vs. Kayla Harrison

Harrison -600 - Pena +425 

Harrison by decision - Dominant judo and physicality give her clear advantage, though Pena's fight-pace might extend it 

Harrison -600, and potentially Harrison by decision (prop) for better value.

Joe Pyfer vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Pyfer -400 - Gastelum +310 

Pyfer by decision - His striking pressure outweighs Gastelum's chin and power. Consistency tilts this in his favor per experts 

Pyfer -400.

Patchy Mix vs. Mario Bautista

Mix -170 - Bautista +140 

Mix via submission - Submission prowess expected to shine on his UFC debut at this level 

Mix by submission - Strong upside in prop market.

Kevin Holland vs. Vicente Luque

Holland -280 - Luque +230 

Holland by decision - Reach and recent form edge out Luque, with cardio favoring Holland 

Holland -280.

Merab Dvalishvili enters riding a 12-fight win streak with elite cardio and wrestling -  believe another decision win is likely,  O'Malley's only path is early striking success 

Kayla Harrison, the Olympic gold medalist in judo, is heavily favored. Even Amanda Nunes picks her by decision, and MMA Mania highlights her takedown-edged dominance 

Patchy Mix is widely regarded as the submission specialist to watch in this UFC debut - analysts point to high upside if he controls the grappling exchanges 

Why Back These Picks?

Dvalishvili's wrestling matches up well vs. O'Malley's striking-focused game.

Harrison's judo and physicality at -600 give heavy reassurance in the moneyline and decision props.

Pyfer and Holland both have strong betting appeal given their statistics and matchup edges.

Mix's submission upside makes him a compelling underdog bet in combat sports.

Best Bet Summary

Top Moneyline Picks: Dvalishvili (-300), Harrison (-600), Pyfer (-400), Holland (-280)

Prop Value Plays:

Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds

Harrison via decision

Mix by submission

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Prelims & Undercard Odds

Flyweight: Joshua Van ?670 vs Bruno Silva +430 

Prediction: Van wins; best bet: Van & over 2.5 rounds (-145) 

Light Heavyweight: Azamat Murzakanov ?670 vs Brendson Ribeiro +430 

Prop: under 1.5 rounds (?160) 

Heavyweight: Sergey Spivak -138 vs Waldo Cortes?Acosta +108 

Prop: under 2.5 rounds (-160) 

Welterweight: Khaos Williams -200 vs Andreas Gustafsson +154 

Bet of the Week: Williams (-190), per Drake Burden 

Parlays & Prop Picks (Main Card + Undercard)

Best Parlays

Combo: Dvalishvili, Harrison, Williams for tight odds with high confidence 

Top Props

Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds (+125)

Harrison via submission (+155) - strong judo/ground game favors this 

Mix by submission (+230) - submission specialist in live debut 

Murzakanov vs Ribeiro under 1.5 rounds (-160) 

Spivak vs Cortes Acosta under 2.5 rounds (-160) 

Best Bets Across the Card

Moneyline: Dvalishvili, Harrison, Pyfer, Mix, Holland

High-Value Props & Parlays:

Dvalishvili under 4.5 rounds

Harrison via submission

Mix by submission

Murzakanov & Spivak unders

Khaos Williams moneyline

Parlay idea: Dvalishvili + Harrison + Williams = high-confidence multiplier.

Why These Picks?

Van, Murzakanov, Spivak: all stronger fighters heavily favored to finish early.

Dvalishvili & Mix: top grappling control; fights likely go decision or submission.

Harrison: judo + physicality = dominator; submission prop is realistic at +155.

Williams: form momentum picked up by betting experts 

Tune in for even more value!

- prop breakdowns for unique bets

- live parlays just before and during the fights

- expert DFS insights like Ram Drift Burden's fantasy value charts

Find all the edge you need over at www.procappers.com  -  your source for pro-level betting strategy.

PARLAY BUILDER

Safe 3-Leg Parlay (Favs):

Dvalishvili ML

Harrison ML

Pyfer ML

Payout: Approx. +100 to +120

Value 4-Leg Prop Parlay:

Dvalishvili under 4.5

Harrison by sub

Mix by sub

Murzakanov under 1.5

Payout: Approx. +950 to +1100 depending on sportsbook

Live Bet Watch: If O'Malley survives Round 1, his odds will balloon up. Might hedge by betting live Round 2 start if you're backing Dvalishvili.

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Real-time betting consensus and line movement

Expert parlays, live betting angles, and props

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