UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira Odds, Picks & Betting Analysis

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira - Betting Breakdown & Odds

Date: Saturday, February 7, 2026
Venue: Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV
Main Card: 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT
Streaming: Paramount+

🔥 Main Event: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

The bantamweight headliner pits No.9 ranked Mario Bautista against No.11 Vinicius 'Lok Dog' Oliveira in a pivotal five-round clash with major divisional implications.

📊 Latest Moneyline Odds (subject to change)

Mario Bautista:??-185 to -205 (favorite)
Vinicius Oliveira:??+130 to +170 (underdog)

Sharp books lean Bautista thanks to his veteran pressure style, diverse skillset and recent run against top competition, even accounting for his only recent loss to Umar Nurmagomedov. Oliveira's explosiveness and striking power make him dangerous, but more volatile price action keeps him on the plus side.

📈 Key Betting Markets

🥇 Moneyline

Bautista to win: Best bet for conservative bettors given form and all-round game.
Oliveira (+130) upset: Consider for leveraged parlays, especially given his finishing upside and athletic profile.

🧠 Method of Victory

Early odds suggest:

Bautista by Decision: elevated value compared to straight moneyline.
Oliveira by KO/TKO: tempting double-chance if looking to exploit his power edge.

🔢 Total Rounds Betting (example odds)

Market	Odds
Over 2.5 Rounds	approx. -225
Under 2.5 Rounds	approx. +165
Over 3.5 Rounds	approx. -140
Under 3.5 Rounds	approx. +100

Prop angle: The tempo matchup ? Bautista?s methodical pace vs Oliveira's explosive strikes -? points toward over rounds value unless an early finish happens.

📊 Betting Angles & Analysis

🧠 Bautista's Edge

Seasoned operator with evolving wrestling and control game sets up decision betting plays.
His experience against high-level grapplers and ability to slow down power punchers helps neutralize Oliveira's offense.

⚡ Oliveira's Upset Potential

Riding an undefeated UFC streak, explosive striking and finishing instincts make him dangerous at any time.
Weight cut and cardio questions - including a reported ~30lb drop to make 135 - could factor deeper into the fight and influence round prop outcomes.

🗓 Other Main Card Fights Worth Betting Consideration

While Bautista vs. Oliveira headlines, several other bouts offer betting opportunities:

✪ Co-Main Event

Amir Albazi vs. Kyoji Horiguchi ? Heavy Flyweight action with contrasting styles. Horiguchi is heavy favorite (-350) but his path to victory isn't guaranteed over Albazi's pace and variety.

🥊 Heavyweight Matchup

Jailton Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev - Almeida has the edge on the ground, but heavyweight volatility keeps props on finishes and under rounds worth exploring.

📌 Betting Strategy Summary

✅ Top conservative play: Bautista ML / Bautista by decision
💥 Value play: Oliveira (+130/+150) outright or KO/TKO prop
📊 Round totals: Lean Over 2.5 or 3.5 rounds, but be cautious if early power fireworks prevail
📍 Parlay slip ideas: Combine Oliveira ML with high-value props across undercard fights