UFC Fight Night Nurmagomedov vs Song Predictions & Best Bets | ProCappers

UFC Shanghai Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, Props & Parlays

The UFC returns to Shanghai on Saturday, August 29, with a six-fight main card headlined by a pivotal bantamweight showdown between former title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov and Chinese contender Song Yadong.

The main card begins at 6:00 a.m. ET on Paramount+, with the preliminaries starting three hours earlier. All six main-card fights are scheduled for three rounds except the five-round main event.

This is an interesting betting card because there are several large favorites, but simply parlaying all of them together is unlikely to provide much value. Our goal at ProCappers is to identify the best ways to attack each fight — moneyline, method of victory, totals, round props, decision spreads and parlays.

Let's break down the entire main card.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong

Bantamweight — 5 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov: approximately -550 to -600
Song Yadong: approximately +400 to +425

ProCappers Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov

Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by Decision

This is the most important fight on the card and potentially one of the most important fights in the UFC bantamweight division.

Nurmagomedov enters with a 20-1 professional record and an 8-1 UFC record. Song is 23-9-1 overall and 12-4-1 inside the UFC. Both fighters have legitimate championship aspirations, making this much more than another main-event appearance.

Nurmagomedov's biggest advantage is obvious: grappling.

His ability to mix takedowns, trips, control time and positional work makes him extremely difficult to fight for five rounds. Song is a dangerous striker and has enough power to change the fight with one clean shot, but Nurmagomedov has a much clearer path to consistently winning rounds.

The question for bettors is price.

At roughly -550 or worse, the Nurmagomedov moneyline doesn't offer much value by itself. Current markets have moved significantly toward Umar, with prices varying by sportsbook.

That makes Nurmagomedov by decision much more attractive.

Nurmagomedov has historically been very comfortable winning fights on the scorecards, and current prop markets have his decision victory priced around the -115 range at some books.

How to Bet the Main Event

Moneyline: Nurmagomedov
Method: Nurmagomedov by Decision
Total: Over 4.5 Rounds
Decision Prop: Nurmagomedov -5.5 on the judges' scorecard spread
Upset Play: Song by KO/TKO

ProCappers Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov wins by unanimous decision.

Projected Score: 49-46 Nurmagomedov

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes

Women's Strawweight — 3 Rounds

Yan Xiaonan: approximately -150 to -160
Denise Gomes: approximately +125 to +135

ProCappers Pick: Yan Xiaonan

This is a much more interesting betting fight than the moneyline numbers might initially suggest.

Yan Xiaonan is the more experienced fighter and has competed at the highest level of the women's strawweight division. She has also already experienced championship-level competition.

Gomes is younger, aggressive and dangerous, but Yan's experience and technical striking should allow her to dictate enough of the fight to win the decision.

The market currently has Yan as a modest favorite, with prices around -150 to -160.

We don't love laying a significant price with Yan, but we do like her to win the fight.

How to Bet

Moneyline: Yan Xiaonan
Method: Yan by Decision
Total: Over 2.5 Rounds
Underdog Play: Gomes by Decision

The Over 2.5 is particularly interesting because neither fighter has to completely abandon her normal style for this fight to reach the judges.

ProCappers Prediction

Yan Xiaonan by unanimous decision.

Projected Score: 29-28

Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng

Bantamweight — 3 Rounds

Kai Asakura: approximately -430 to -500
Aoriqileng: approximately +330 to +350

ProCappers Pick: Kai Asakura

This is one of the fights where we prefer looking beyond the straight moneyline.

Asakura is a substantial favorite and brings serious striking ability and finishing upside into the matchup. Aoriqileng is durable and experienced, but Asakura's speed and ability to create damaging exchanges make him the fighter with the greater finishing ceiling.

Current markets have Asakura around -430 to -500.

That is a steep price.

Instead of laying the full moneyline, bettors could consider Asakura by KO/TKO or a fight-total wager.

Current markets have the Over/Under 1.5 rounds essentially priced around a pick'em, which tells us sportsbooks expect a much more explosive fight than the main event.

How to Bet

Moneyline: Asakura
Method: Asakura by KO/TKO
Total: Under 1.5 Rounds
Parlay: Asakura ML as a leg

ProCappers Prediction

Kai Asakura wins by TKO in Round 2.

Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez

Flyweight — 3 Rounds

Sumudaerji: approximately -220 to -230
Alex Perez: approximately +175 to +180

ProCappers Pick: Sumudaerji

This could be one of the more competitive fights on the main card.

Sumudaerji has the striking ability to make this difficult for Perez, particularly if he can maintain range and prevent Perez from consistently establishing his preferred grappling sequences.

Perez is a dangerous opponent and the +175 to +180 range makes him an intriguing upset candidate. However, our preferred side is still Sumudaerji.

The current market has the fight around Over/Under 2.5 rounds, with the Under slightly favored at some books.

Best Betting Approach

Rather than paying a heavy price on Sumudaerji, we would consider:

Sumudaerji ML
or
Sumudaerji by Decision

This is also a reasonable fight to leave off parlays.

ProCappers Prediction

Sumudaerji by unanimous decision.

Projected Score: 29-28

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Light Heavyweight — 3 Rounds

Liu Ce: approximately -200
Levi Rodrigues Jr.: approximately +160 to +170

ProCappers Pick: Liu Ce

This is one of the most intriguing fights from a betting perspective because both fighters have serious finishing ability.

Liu Ce is the larger fighter, listed at 6-foot-4 with a 77.5-inch reach. Rodrigues is listed at 6-foot with a 76.5-inch reach. Both fighters also enter with extremely high finishing rates.

That makes this a very different proposition from the main event.

At heavyweight/light heavyweight, one clean exchange can completely change the fight.

The current market has Liu around -200 and Rodrigues around +165. The total is around 1.5 rounds, with the Under favored.

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds

We like the Under more than the Liu moneyline.

This is exactly the type of fight where the fighters' finishing profiles make the total more attractive than laying -200 on one side.

How to Bet

Moneyline: Liu Ce
Method: Liu Ce by KO/TKO
Total: Under 1.5 Rounds
Long Shot: Rodrigues by KO/TKO

ProCappers Prediction

Liu Ce by KO/TKO in Round 1.

Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas

Flyweight — 3 Rounds

Bilal Hasan: approximately -650 to -800
Nilson Rojas: approximately +475 to +550

ProCappers Pick: Bilal Hasan

This is the biggest mismatch on the main card according to the betting market.

Hasan is being priced as a massive favorite, with current numbers ranging from roughly -650 to -800 depending on the sportsbook.

At that price, there is very little value in simply playing the moneyline.

If Hasan wins as expected, bettors need the method or round props to improve the payout.

The Under 1.5 rounds is also favored in the current market, making the fight an obvious candidate for a finishing prop or total rather than a straight moneyline wager.

How to Bet

Moneyline: Hasan
Method: Hasan by KO/TKO
Total: Under 1.5 Rounds
Parlay: Hasan ML

ProCappers Prediction

Bilal Hasan wins by TKO in Round 1.

ProCappers Main Card Betting Rankings

Not every favorite deserves the same level of confidence.

Here is how we rank the six fights:

Best UFC Shanghai Moneyline Bets

If you're betting only straight winners, these are our preferred plays:

Best Straight Bet

Umar Nurmagomedov ML

The problem is the price. At -550 or worse, you're paying a substantial premium for a fighter we expect to win.

Best Moderate Favorite

Sumudaerji ML

The -220 to -230 range is much more manageable than the massive prices attached to some of the other favorites.

Best Underdog

Denise Gomes ML

Gomes is the underdog we would be most interested in as a straight upset play. She has the youth and offensive ability to make Yan work throughout three rounds.

Best Value Underdog

Alex Perez +175 or better

Perez is dangerous enough that the moneyline price deserves consideration. This isn't a high-confidence upset pick, but the price is attractive enough to make him interesting.

Best UFC Shanghai Method-of-Victory Bets

Method-of-victory betting can provide considerably better value than moneylines.

Nurmagomedov by Decision

This is our favorite main-event prop.

Nurmagomedov has four of his seven UFC victories by decision, and his style lends itself to controlling fights rather than constantly chasing a finish.

Asakura by KO/TKO

Asakura has the striking and finishing ability to turn a competitive fight into a short night.

Liu Ce by KO/TKO

The size, power and finishing profiles of the two light heavyweights make a stoppage especially attractive.

Hasan by KO/TKO

The market expects Hasan to win comfortably, so the method provides substantially more betting value than his enormous moneyline.

UFC Shanghai Fight Totals

Totals are often the best way to bet UFC fights when there is uncertainty over which fighter wins.

Nurmagomedov vs. Song

Pick: Over 4.5 Rounds

This is our favorite total on the main event.

Nurmagomedov has little reason to rush. Song's best chance is to create explosive exchanges, but Umar should be able to control enough of the fight to make a late finish difficult.

Yan vs. Gomes

Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds

Both fighters have enough durability and technical ability to make a three-round decision very realistic.

Asakura vs. Aoriqileng

Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds

This is the opposite type of fight.

Asakura's finishing ability makes the early rounds dangerous for Aoriqileng.

Liu vs. Rodrigues

Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds

This is arguably the most obvious early-finish candidate on the card.

Hasan vs. Rojas

Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds

The massive moneyline indicates that the market expects Hasan to have a significant advantage, and the total gives bettors a better price than simply laying an enormous number.

Best UFC Shanghai Props

Our favorite individual props:

Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Kai Asakura by KO/TKO

Liu Ce by KO/TKO

Bilal Hasan by KO/TKO

Nurmagomedov vs. Song Over 4.5 Rounds

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Under 1.5 Rounds

Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng Under 1.5 Rounds

UFC Shanghai Parlay Ideas

Parlays should be used carefully because one bad leg ruins the entire ticket.

Conservative Parlay

Umar Nurmagomedov ML
Yan Xiaonan ML
Kai Asakura ML

This is the safer approach, although the combined price will still be relatively modest because all three are favorites.

Aggressive Parlay

Nurmagomedov by Decision
Asakura by KO/TKO
Hasan by KO/TKO

This has considerably more upside but also significantly more risk.

Total-Based Parlay

Nurmagomedov vs. Song Over 4.5
Liu Ce vs. Rodrigues Under 1.5
Asakura vs. Aoriqileng Under 1.5

This is our favorite way to build a parlay without simply stacking moneyline favorites.

Live Betting Strategy

UFC fights can provide excellent live-betting opportunities because the market can overreact to individual moments.

For Nurmagomedov vs. Song, don't panic if Song lands the better strike early. Umar's advantage is his ability to build control over several minutes. If Song has success early but Umar begins consistently securing takedowns, the live Nurmagomedov price could become much more attractive.

For Asakura vs. Aoriqileng, be careful waiting too long. A fight with significant finishing potential can end before a second live opportunity appears.

The Liu Ce vs. Rodrigues fight is another matchup where waiting can be dangerous because either fighter could end it with one clean combination.

ProCappers Official Main Card Picks

Here is the complete ProCappers card:

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong

Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov
Best Bet: Nurmagomedov by Decision

Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes

Pick: Yan Xiaonan
Best Bet: Yan ML

Kai Asakura vs. Aoriqileng

Pick: Kai Asakura
Best Bet: Asakura by KO/TKO

Sumudaerji vs. Alex Perez

Pick: Sumudaerji
Best Bet: Sumudaerji ML

Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Pick: Liu Ce
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds

Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas

Pick: Bilal Hasan
Best Bet: Hasan by KO/TKO

ProCappers Fight of the Night Prediction

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong

This is the fight that matters most to the bantamweight title picture.

Nurmagomedov has rebounded from his title loss with consecutive victories, while Song enters after submitting former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in May. Both fighters have a legitimate argument for being next in line, although the crowded bantamweight division means an impressive victory could be particularly important.

ProCappers Free Pick of the Day

Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision

The straight Nurmagomedov moneyline is difficult to recommend at a price around -550 or higher.

Instead, we're looking for a better return by backing the more specific outcome.

FREE PICK: UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV BY DECISION

Confidence: 8.5/10

Umar's grappling, control and five-round experience give him multiple ways to win this fight. Song's power makes him dangerous throughout the fight, but over 25 minutes, Nurmagomedov has more paths to victory.

Projected Result: Nurmagomedov by Unanimous Decision

Final UFC Shanghai Betting Card

Best Overall Bet: Nurmagomedov by Decision

Best Moneyline: Sumudaerji ML

Best Underdog: Denise Gomes ML

Best KO/TKO Prop: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO

Best Total: Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Under 1.5

Best Long-Fight Total: Nurmagomedov vs. Song Over 4.5

Best Parlay Leg: Umar Nurmagomedov ML

Best Aggressive Parlay: Nurmagomedov Decision + Asakura KO/TKO + Hasan KO/TKO

The UFC Shanghai card offers several different ways to attack the betting board. The biggest lesson is not to automatically lay enormous prices simply because a fighter is heavily favored. Method-of-victory props and totals can provide considerably better value.

As always, shop around for the best number because UFC odds can move significantly before fight night.

Good luck from everyone at ProCappers!