What percentage of the time will a 7 point underdog win a college football game straight up? Who cares if you are betting the spread, right?
Wrong.
Even though betting "against the spread" is the standard for college football bets in North America, collecting ALL PERTINENT INFORMATION is the gold standard for sharp bettors accross the globe. Knowing the percentage of times a team wins at a given spread is the first critical information to understanding value in a line, pointspread or otherwise.
The following is actual STRAIGHT UP WIN PERCENTAGE split between pointspread favorites and underdogs (and pickems) of college football games spanning tens of thousands of games over many decades. (NOTE: For purposes of this study CLOSING POINTSPREADS were used)
College Football Pointspread to Win % Conversion Table
| Pointspread | Favorite Win% | Underdog Win% |
|---|---|---|
| Pointspread | Favorite | Underdog |
| 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 1 | 51.30% | 48.70% |
| 1.5 | 52.60% | 47.40% |
| 2 | 53.50% | 46.50% |
| 2.5 | 54.40% | 45.70% |
| 3 | 57.50% | 42.50% |
| 3.5 | 60.70% | 39.30% |
| 4 | 62.00% | 38.00% |
| 4.5 | 63.20% | 36.80% |
| 5 | 64.20% | 35.80% |
| 5.5 | 65.20% | 34.80% |
| 6 | 66.50% | 33.50% |
| 6.5 | 67.80% | 32.20% |
| 7 | 70.40% | 29.60% |
| 7.5 | 73.10% | 26.90% |
| 8 | 73.90% | 26.10% |
| 8.5 | 74.70% | 25.30% |
| 9 | 75.20% | 24.90% |
| 9.5 | 75.60% | 24.40% |
| 10 | 77.50% | 22.50% |
| 10.5 | 79.40% | 20.70% |
| 11 | 80.00% | 20.00% |
| 11.5 | 80.70% | 19.30% |
| 12 | 81.70% | 18.30% |
| 12.5 | 82.70% | 17.30% |
| 13 | 83.10% | 16.90% |
| 13.5 | 83.60% | 16.40% |
| 14 | 85.20% | 14.80% |
| 14.5 | 86.90% | 13.10% |
| 15 | 87.50% | 12.50% |
| 15.5 | 88.20% | 11.90% |
| 16 | 88.70% | 11.40% |
| 16.5 | 89.20% | 10.90% |
| 17 | 91.50% | 8.50% |
| 17.5 | 93.80% | 6.20% |
| 18 | 95.10% | 5.00% |
| 18.5 | 96.30% | 3.70% |
| 19 | 97.40% | 2.60% |
| 19.5 | 98.50% | 1.50% |
| 20 + | 100.0% | 0.0% |