UFC 324 Betting Preview: Main Card Odds, Picks & Best Bets | ProCappers

UFC 324 Preview - ProCappers.com

The first UFC numbered event of 2026 opens the year with a stacked main card and several compelling betting angles as the sport transitions to the Paramount+ era.

Main Event: Justin Gaethje (+187) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-225) - Interim Lightweight Title

Line & Market

Pimblett ML: -225
Gaethje ML: +187
Rounds Over/Under 2.5: Split even money around -120/-120 depending on the book.

Betting Outlook

Value Play:
Pimblett : the -225 favorite - is justified by his 7-0 UFC record and finishing upside, but the line isn't severe enough to rule Gaethje out. Gimblett's improved striking and submission threat create live odds for a finish (+145 submission on many books).

Against the Spread:
If you're looking beyond the straight moneyline, Over 2.5 rounds looks like a solid alternative - both fighters historically go past early rounds, especially in bouts where neither gets finished instantly.

Parlay Potential:
In multi-leg parlays, pairing Pimblett ML with another favorite like O'Malley shapes up well, but watch the juice - these lines can sour combined returns quickly.

Co-Main: Sean O?Malley (-200) vs. Song Yadong (+170)

Line

O'Malley ML: -200
Yadong ML: +170
Over/Under (Rounds 2.5): O -240 / U +180.

Betting Angle

O'Malley is the public favorite due to elite striking, but recent performance volatility suggests patience on this line. Consider O'Malley by KO/TKO instead of just the moneyline if books offer an enhanced prop - this places emphasis on where he's had most success. Song's power and wrestling mix make him a sneaky upset candidate at +170 if he cuts the Octagon well.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-334) vs. Derrick Lewis (+250)

Line

Cortes-Acosta ML: -334
Lewis ML: +250
Under 1.5 rounds: +110.

Betting Outlook

Waldo is firmly favored with his size and volume advantage; however, Lewis's singular KO power always makes him a lottery ticket worth a small play. The under 1.5 rounds at a plus price is another interesting angle if you think Lewis catches him early or if Cortes-Acosta rushes for a quick finish - a classic momentum swing market.

Natalia Silva (-400) vs. Rose Namajunas (+300)

Line

Silva ML: -400
Namajunas ML: +300
Spread: Silva -3.5.

Betting Opportunity

Silva's heavy favorite status reflects her recent climb and aggression. For bettors concerned by the severe chalk, Namajunas ML at +300 still has underdog appeal - especially if she can drag this fight into deeper waters and outpoint Silva. However, the smart money rests heavily with the Brazilian via decision.

Arnold Allen (+225) vs. Jean Silva (-275)

Line

Silva ML: -275
Allen ML: +225
Over/Under 2.5 rounds: O -140 / U +100.

Betting Angle

This featherweight tilt offers the most value intrigue on the main card. Silva's line is juiced, but Allen's multiple tools and resilience mean Allen +225 could be an overlay - especially if you suspect Silva's aggressive style leads to errors. If Silva strikes early and often, Silva by KO/TKO might provide better ROI than a straight chalk price.

Best Bets & Parlay Structures (ProCappers)

Single Plays

Paddy Pimblett ML - top choice in the main event.
Over 2.5 rounds (Gaethje vs. Pimblett) - good alternative where moneyline isn't ideal.
Lewis +250 - low-stake dog ticket based purely on one-punch potential.

Parlays

Pimblett ML + O'Malley ML - focus on the favorite block.
Over 2.5 + Silva ML - two safer sides with less variance for moderate risk.

Props to Watch

Method Props: Pimblett via Submission (+145) & O'Malley KO/TKO (+300+).
Round Props: Early finish markets under 2.5 rounds offer plus-money on key bouts.

Final Notes

UFC 324 delivers an early 2026 bang with a blend of title implications and betting markets with diverse risk profiles. The title fight line doesn't blow you away, but overlays and alternate markets - like submission props and round totals - remain fertile ground for sharp action. As always, shop lines across sportsbooks for small but meaningful edge opportunities.